Analyst at ortelius capital10/13/2023 It might be that the only thing which stopped Barclays keeping to their 4% half year run rate was Deutsche Bank CEO's Christian Sewing’s very public statement that “we will stick to our commitment that we pay for performance … where we have very good performance, we will honor this”. In the circumstances, Barclays' traders should probably thank Deutsche. JPMorgan are talking about a somewhat larger increase, but Goldman Sachs’ Jim Esposito seems to be sending out quite pessimistic messages. With those sorts of headwinds, even ten per cent looks like it might not be so bad. And the banking regulators have been sending out strongly worded letters talking about “a high degree of caution and prudence”. Back in October, it looked like both appointments might have been made with an eye to keeping costs down. On the other hand, it wasn’t so long ago that Bank of America was brainstorming ideas like “how about no growth? How does 0% sound?”Īdded to which, Barclays traders have a brand new head of global markets in the shape of CS Venkatakrishnan, while the bankers have an equally new global head, Paul Compton. That might be seen as not particularly great when you compare it to the 52% increase in sales and trading revenue, then even if the traders did superlatively well in the brutal coming battle over the pool split, they’re going to be taking a very ungenerous fraction of their contribution to revenues this year. Having accrued a pot only 4% higher than in 2019 in the half year accounts, whisper numbers coming from “people with knowledge of the matter” are now talking about a 10% coming up as indicative guidance from the expectations management conversations. However, it seems that the kite at Barclays is flying a little bit higher than it was a while ago. Bonus pool leaks at this point in the year shouldn’t be taken as necessarily accurate – to a large extent, they represent kite-flying conversations on the part of management to try and gauge sentiment, rather than detailed plans.
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